Conference Publication Details
Mandatory Fields
Mc Garrigle, E. and Leahy, P. G.
Proceedings of the 12th IEEE International Conference on Environment \& Electrical Engineering
The value of accuracy in wind energy forecasts
Optional Fields
unit commitment; economic dispatch; mixed integer linear programming; PLEXOS for power systems; electricity markets.
Wroclaw, Poland
Abstract¿Wind generation of electricity is both variable and
unpredictable in its nature. Wind energy forecasting is a means of
addressing both of these issues. This study quantifies the effects
of the accuracy of wind energy forecasts on the operation of the
Irish electricity system of 2020. Through combined use of dayahead
scheduling and real-time simulations, it was found that
there are notable savings to be made and that changes occur in
the dispatch of generator technology types with improvements
in wind forecast accuracy. There are potential savings of on
average 0.27% of total generation cost for every percentage
point decrease in the normalised mean absolute error of wind
forecasts. This is mainly resulting from less frequent use of
high-cost OCGT¿s on the system due to the day-ahead schedule
becoming a more accurate representation of actual generation as
wind forecast accuracy improves. There is also a slight reduction
in wind curtailment with increased accuracy of the day-ahead
unit commitment schedule.
Irish Research Council; Science Foundation Ireland.
Grant Details